Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
The CNY fix once again came in stronger than market expectations, but the size of the surprise was in line with the trend from last week.
- The USD/CNY fix was estimated at 6.6938, while the actual came in at 6.6899. This a downside surprise of -39 pips, while last Friday the downside surprise was -47 pips.
- For the last 5 sessions the fix has surprised a cumulative 186pips. This is strongest bias towards CNY, at least in fixing terms, since the start of April 2020.
- USD/CNH continues to press higher though. Up a further 154 pips today to 6.7333 at the time of writing, after printing a new cycle high of CNH6.7475.
- From a technical point of view, the next topside target is provided by Nov 4, 2020 high of CNH6.7745. On the flip side, focus is on May 4 low of CNH6.6118.
- Upcoming trade data will be a focus point today, with the market looking for a sharp slowdown in export growth to 2.7% yoy for April (versus 14.7% previously).
- China tech equities in the US also finished last week poorly, down nearly 13% through the last two sessions of the week. This, along with broader market risk aversion, is keeping USD sentiment supported this morning.
Fig 1: USD/CNH and USD/CNY Fixing Error Term
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok