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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
CNY Fixed Stronger Again, But USD/CNH Marches Higher
The CNY fix once again came in stronger than market expectations, but the size of the surprise was in line with the trend from last week.
- The USD/CNY fix was estimated at 6.6938, while the actual came in at 6.6899. This a downside surprise of -39 pips, while last Friday the downside surprise was -47 pips.
- For the last 5 sessions the fix has surprised a cumulative 186pips. This is strongest bias towards CNY, at least in fixing terms, since the start of April 2020.
- USD/CNH continues to press higher though. Up a further 154 pips today to 6.7333 at the time of writing, after printing a new cycle high of CNH6.7475.
- From a technical point of view, the next topside target is provided by Nov 4, 2020 high of CNH6.7745. On the flip side, focus is on May 4 low of CNH6.6118.
- Upcoming trade data will be a focus point today, with the market looking for a sharp slowdown in export growth to 2.7% yoy for April (versus 14.7% previously).
- China tech equities in the US also finished last week poorly, down nearly 13% through the last two sessions of the week. This, along with broader market risk aversion, is keeping USD sentiment supported this morning.
Fig 1: USD/CNH and USD/CNY Fixing Error Term
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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