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CNY Fixing - No Aggressive Push Back On Yuan Strength

CNH

The USD/CNY fix came in at 6.7130, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 6.7147.

  • Today's fix represents a -17pip surprise in USD/CNY terms, versus yesterday's outcome of -9pips. The rolling 5-day sum of the error term is at -56pips, little changed from yesterday.
  • The next focus point is likely to be the onshore spot open. Yesterday's close was 6.7422, but USD/CNH is currently trading at 6.7090. Note the onshore spot low in mid Jan was close to 6.6900.
  • Today's fix doesn't suggest any strong push back around yuan strength, at least based off the fixing surprise. In any case, the NEER remains within recent ranges at 125.50 (J.P. Morgan estimate).

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