Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The Colorado Supreme Court'sruling that disqualifies former President Donald Trump from appearing on the ballot in the state's presidential primary has seen a small decline in the Republican frontrunner's implied probability of winning the 2024 presidential election. The court ruled that Trump's alleged role in the 6 Jan 2021 riots at the Capitol amounted to an 'insurrection', and that under an 1868 provision to the US Constitution insurrectionists can be barred from running for office.
- Data from Smarkets shows Trump's implied probability of winning the presidency falling from 42.7% before the ruling to 38.8% presently. The primary beneficiary has not been incumbent President Joe Biden, but Trump's GOP primary opponent, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Her implied probability of winning the presidency has risen from 6.9% prior to the ruling to 8.7% currently.
- Courts in a number of other states are considering similar cases, and as is often the case in political rulings it could come down to the conservative/liberal split on various courts. All seven of Colorado's Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic governors, and even then the decision came to a 4-3 split in favour of barring Trump.
- Trump's legal team has stated that it will challenge the ruling, likely setting up a US Supreme Court showdown. Given that SCOTUS would prove the final arbiter of what constitutes an insurrection, the 6-3 split there in favour of conservatives could bolster Trump's chances of avoiding banishment from the ballot.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok