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Commerzbank on HUF and NBH

HUNGARY
  • HUF weakness has triggered some revision of expectations amongst market observers recently.
  • Earlier, observers were unanimously anticipating a standard (pre-signalled) 50bp rate hike today (which would take the base rate from 5.90% to 6.40%).
  • But now, a sizeable minority have switched to expecting a 100bp hike instead.
  • This means that, if MNB were to simply ignore such expectations and hike by 50bp, there could be immediate further pressure on HUF.

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