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Commerzbank Revise Year-End USDTRY Forecast Higher to 30.00

TRY
  • As inflation re-accelerates, the outlook for the real interest rate will deteriorate which will further intensify exchange rate depreciation, Commerzbank say.
  • They have therefore revised up their USDTRY forecast path, with a target of 27.00 for September 2023 and 30.00 for end-2023.
  • They say TRY still appears to be kept stable by policymakers with the help of interventions as well as a plethora of FX controls which have not been dismantled.
  • Other efforts to dismantle soft capital controls or end unconventional ‘liraization’ measures have proved difficult because of the economic costs involved, Commerzbank say. They add that the current set of policies cannot be viewed to have resolved longstanding problems or restored central bank credibility.
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