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Commerzbank See BZ Inflation Unlikely to Raise Expectations of Easing

BRAZIL
  • Commerzbank write that today's BZ inflation release is likely to show a further decline in price pressures, however the data would have to surprise significantly to the downside in order to raise any expectations of a rate cut.
  • Commerzbank see the BCB's hawkish stance as already fully priced into FX, which is why they see little further appreciation potential for the BRL. Conversely, they are concerned that the FX market risks underestimating the consequences of increased government influence on monetary policy.
  • They add that the nomination of Galipolo confirms fears that the BCB will find it increasingly difficult to provide a credible counterweight to a presumably more expansionary government, especially when Neto's term ends at the end of 2024.
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