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COMMODITIES: Gold Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play

COMMODITIES
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  • WTI closed higher on the day, having sharply dipped earlier without a clear driver. Upside is likely to be capped by soft China demand expectations and continued strength in the US dollar.
  • WTI Dec 24 rose by 0.4% at $68.4/bbl.
  • The EIA has kept its forecast for global oil demand in 2024 stable at 103.1m b/d, according to its November Short-Term Energy Outlook.
  • A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and a move lower would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at $72.88, the Nov 7 high.
  • Meanwhile, spot gold has declined by another 0.6% today to $2,584/oz as the US dollar posted further gains, despite the softer-than-expected US supercore CPI inflation data.
  • The latest pullback in gold appears to be corrective, but the recent weakness has brought the yellow metal below the 50-day EMA, at $2,642.0, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards $2,547.0 the Sep 18 low.
  • Copper is also down by another 1.3% at $408/lb, taking losses this week to more than 5%.
  • Citi has cut its short-term outlook for copper prices by 11% as likely tariff hikes under a Trump presidency and weaker-than-expected China stimulus will weigh on demand.
  • This week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme, with focus on $404.20, the Sep 5 low, followed by $396.45, the Aug 7 low and the bear trigger.
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  • WTI closed higher on the day, having sharply dipped earlier without a clear driver. Upside is likely to be capped by soft China demand expectations and continued strength in the US dollar.
  • WTI Dec 24 rose by 0.4% at $68.4/bbl.
  • The EIA has kept its forecast for global oil demand in 2024 stable at 103.1m b/d, according to its November Short-Term Energy Outlook.
  • A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and a move lower would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at $72.88, the Nov 7 high.
  • Meanwhile, spot gold has declined by another 0.6% today to $2,584/oz as the US dollar posted further gains, despite the softer-than-expected US supercore CPI inflation data.
  • The latest pullback in gold appears to be corrective, but the recent weakness has brought the yellow metal below the 50-day EMA, at $2,642.0, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards $2,547.0 the Sep 18 low.
  • Copper is also down by another 1.3% at $408/lb, taking losses this week to more than 5%.
  • Citi has cut its short-term outlook for copper prices by 11% as likely tariff hikes under a Trump presidency and weaker-than-expected China stimulus will weigh on demand.
  • This week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme, with focus on $404.20, the Sep 5 low, followed by $396.45, the Aug 7 low and the bear trigger.