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MNI US CPI Preview: Core CPI Seen Holding Stubbornly High

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Core CPI inflation is widely seen printing its fourth consecutive 0.4% handle after February’s 0.45% M/M.
  • Monthly core CPI should be lifted by a large decline for used car prices dropping out whilst there is broader uncertainty for airfares after prior surprising strength.
  • Core goods prices beyond used cars could offer some renewed disinflationary pressure after a recent improvement in supply chain pressures, but we suspect any continued stickiness in non-housing core services will dictate the market reaction ahead of the May FOMC, with an 18bp hike currently priced.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USCPIPrevApr2023.pdf


Prior Inflation Developments

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