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Free AccessCommodity Deflation In Metals, But Not Energy Or Food
Global commodity price inflation continues to show signs of having peaked in early-to-mid 2022. U.S. inflation expectations have largely followed the same trajectory.
- But Y/Y drops in commodity prices are confined largely to industrial and precious metals, which have respectively been negatively impacted by weakening global industrial activity and the soaring US dollar.
- Global energy and food prices - which have been disproportionately impacted by the Russia-Ukraine War - are broadly up 10 to 30% above year-ago levels. U.S. retail gasoline prices are shown alongside this to show feed-through to consumer prices.
- And the below represents prices in USD - with dollar strength a key theme this year, foreign buyers are paying more in local currency for imported commodities. For instance, priced in Euros, the Energy index is up 48% Y/Y, vs 26% in USD terms.
- While that's still well below the peak, and lower metals prices could help pipeline price pressures on the margin, headline consumer prices are set to remain elevated Y/Y through the end of 2022 at current levels.
Source: BBG Commodity Indices, AAA, Federal Reserve, MNI
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.