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COMMUNICATIONS: Scandi Telco RV Update

COMMUNICATIONS
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A look at recent moves in the Scandi telco space; main thing of note is that Elisa has been lagging both Scandi peers and the €IG telco index on soft Q3 results.

  • Elisa (ELIAV Baa2/BBB+) – Lagging scandi peers in recent weeks; Q3 results on 18 Oct have seen the equity move 11% lower on disappointing revenues driven by lower equipment sales and mobile churn. FY revenue estimates have been downgraded by close to 1% though EBITDA consensus is only slightly lower (-0.4%) given a tweak higher in guidance.
  • Tele2 (TELBSS BBB) – Q3 results slightly soft on service revenues with a FCF miss due to WC and taxes. Reminder the curve trades on the technical of a CoC trigger on a Niel-backed takeover; performance more likely influenced by appointment of a CEO from Niel’s Polish telco lsdt month.
  • Telenor (TELNO Baa1/A-) – Mostly in-line results with the guidance range tightened for a third quarter on strong Nordic performance – the FCF guidance increase was particularly of note given that CapEx is backloaded into year-end. Some slight flattening further out the curve, mostly on the high coupon 35s.
  • Telia (TELIAS Baa1/BBB+) – Also mostly neutral with a slight revenue miss and a slight EBITDA beat with a guidance increase albeit with warning for revenue softness over the coming quarters though the more important development was likely the end-Sept CMD which laid out EBITDA growth of >4% through to 2027.  
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A look at recent moves in the Scandi telco space; main thing of note is that Elisa has been lagging both Scandi peers and the €IG telco index on soft Q3 results.

  • Elisa (ELIAV Baa2/BBB+) – Lagging scandi peers in recent weeks; Q3 results on 18 Oct have seen the equity move 11% lower on disappointing revenues driven by lower equipment sales and mobile churn. FY revenue estimates have been downgraded by close to 1% though EBITDA consensus is only slightly lower (-0.4%) given a tweak higher in guidance.
  • Tele2 (TELBSS BBB) – Q3 results slightly soft on service revenues with a FCF miss due to WC and taxes. Reminder the curve trades on the technical of a CoC trigger on a Niel-backed takeover; performance more likely influenced by appointment of a CEO from Niel’s Polish telco lsdt month.
  • Telenor (TELNO Baa1/A-) – Mostly in-line results with the guidance range tightened for a third quarter on strong Nordic performance – the FCF guidance increase was particularly of note given that CapEx is backloaded into year-end. Some slight flattening further out the curve, mostly on the high coupon 35s.
  • Telia (TELIAS Baa1/BBB+) – Also mostly neutral with a slight revenue miss and a slight EBITDA beat with a guidance increase albeit with warning for revenue softness over the coming quarters though the more important development was likely the end-Sept CMD which laid out EBITDA growth of >4% through to 2027.