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Conference Board Labor Differential Lifts After Downward Revision

US DATA
  • Conference Board consumer confidence was close to expectations in June at 100.4 (cons 100.0) after a downward revised 101.3 (initial 102.0).
  • With limited surprises on the headline print there was greater focus on the labor differential as an early indicator ahead of next week’s payrolls report.
  • The differential increased to 24.0 in June but only from a downward revised 22.7 in May (initial 24.0).
  • It averaged 23.2 in Q2, consolidating the pullback from the short-lived increase to 30.4 averaged in Q1.
  • Whilst a little higher on the month, 24 remains one of the lower readings seen since early 2021, below the levels averaged through 2019 in a sign of labor market moderation - see chart.
  • Jobs plentiful 38.1% vs 37.0% last month (revised down from 37.0).
  • Hard to get 14.1% vs 14.3% last month (revised up from 13.5), still the high end for recent values but below the joint recent peaks of 15.5%.

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