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Congressional Preference Stable Despite Swinging Presidential Race

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A new survey from NBC News has found that the generic Congressional ballot - a polling metric which asks voters whether they would prefer an unnamed Republican or Democrat in Congress - has been remarkably stable for over two years, despite preferences shifting more dramatically at the top of the ticket.

  • NBC: "Right now, 47% prefer a GOP-controlled Congress compared to 46% who want Democrats. The parties have been locked in that competitive position for years: The GOP number hasn’t moved more than 2 points in either direction in NBC News polling since August 2021, while the Democratic number dipped outside that range just once."
  • 538 notes a similarly tight race, with Democrats slightly ahead, on their generic congressional ballot aggregator: Democrats 44.7% Republicans 44.3%.
  • Real Clear Politics' trackershows a dead heat - 45.5% apiece.

Figure 1: "What is your preference for the outcome of the congressional elections?"

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A new survey from NBC News has found that the generic Congressional ballot - a polling metric which asks voters whether they would prefer an unnamed Republican or Democrat in Congress - has been remarkably stable for over two years, despite preferences shifting more dramatically at the top of the ticket.

  • NBC: "Right now, 47% prefer a GOP-controlled Congress compared to 46% who want Democrats. The parties have been locked in that competitive position for years: The GOP number hasn’t moved more than 2 points in either direction in NBC News polling since August 2021, while the Democratic number dipped outside that range just once."
  • 538 notes a similarly tight race, with Democrats slightly ahead, on their generic congressional ballot aggregator: Democrats 44.7% Republicans 44.3%.
  • Real Clear Politics' trackershows a dead heat - 45.5% apiece.

Figure 1: "What is your preference for the outcome of the congressional elections?"

Keep reading...Show less