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Stronger In a Range


Weaker In A Range


Ending The Week On A Soft Note


Bearish Risk Growing


Stronger, But Still Vulnerable


SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

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The latest Abacus poll shows the centre-right main opposition Conservatives gaining on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party, but the main polling trends still indicate a stable, if narrow, lead for the Liberals nearly halfway through the current parliament.

  • Abacus Data: Liberals: 34% (-2), Conservatives: 32% (+3), New Democratic Party: 17% (=), Greens: 7% (=), Bloc Quebecois: 6% (-1), People's Party: 3% (+1). Last date of Polling: 12 May, chgs w/25 April. 1,500 respondents.
  • While this poll looks good for Erin O'Toole's party, the overall polling trend in recent weeks and months continues to show Trudeau's Liberals with a stable lead (see chart below):
Chart 1. Opinion Polling, % and 4-poll moving average

Source: Abacus Data, Leger, EKOS, Innovative Research, Angus Reid, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos, Pollara, MNI. Each dot indicates single poll.

  • The stable lead for the Liberals has raised the prospect that PM Trudeau could call a general election well before the end of the current parliament in late-2023.
  • At present his gov't is a minority one, hindering his ability to pass legislation and meaning there is always the looming prospect of a vote of no confidence being called by the opposition to test the support of smaller left-wing parties in propping up Trudeau.