Trial now
USDCAD TECHS

Stronger In a Range

AUDUSD TECHS

Weaker In A Range

US TSYS SUMMARY

Ending The Week On A Soft Note

EURJPY TECHS

Bearish Risk Growing

USDJPY TECHS

Stronger, But Still Vulnerable

US

SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.

The latest Abacus poll shows the centre-right main opposition Conservatives gaining on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party, but the main polling trends still indicate a stable, if narrow, lead for the Liberals nearly halfway through the current parliament.

  • Abacus Data: Liberals: 34% (-2), Conservatives: 32% (+3), New Democratic Party: 17% (=), Greens: 7% (=), Bloc Quebecois: 6% (-1), People's Party: 3% (+1). Last date of Polling: 12 May, chgs w/25 April. 1,500 respondents.
  • While this poll looks good for Erin O'Toole's party, the overall polling trend in recent weeks and months continues to show Trudeau's Liberals with a stable lead (see chart below):
Chart 1. Opinion Polling, % and 4-poll moving average

Source: Abacus Data, Leger, EKOS, Innovative Research, Angus Reid, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Innovative Research, Ipsos, Pollara, MNI. Each dot indicates single poll.

  • The stable lead for the Liberals has raised the prospect that PM Trudeau could call a general election well before the end of the current parliament in late-2023.
  • At present his gov't is a minority one, hindering his ability to pass legislation and meaning there is always the looming prospect of a vote of no confidence being called by the opposition to test the support of smaller left-wing parties in propping up Trudeau.