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May Trade Balance Weaker Than Expected From Gold Volatility

CANADA DATA
  • Canada trade balance -CAD1.9 in May vs the consensus of -CAD1.3, marking the third deficit in a row and its largest deficit since Jun 2023.
  • Exports -2.6% MOM to the lowest since Jul'23 after rising +2.1% in April as precious metals -17.1% in May. Decreases were seen in 8 of 11 subcategories.
  • Imports -1.6% MOM led by metals as Canadian demand for gold faded from April.
  • Exports -0.6% YOY; imports -1.4%.
  • US surplus widened to +CAD8.2B from +CAD7.1B from light truck exports.
  • Ex-US deficit widened to -CAD10.1B from -CAD8.4B in May as exports fell by the fastest pace on record.
  • April trade deficit revised to -CAD1.3B from -CA1B.
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