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Cons. See Worst YouGov Poll Score Since Jun-19, Local Elections To Set Tone

UK
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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservative party has recorded its lowest level of support in a YouGov poll since the June 2019. The news comes on the same day that voters across England and Wales go to the ballot box for local elections. The latest YouGov poll, carried out 30 Apr-1 May, has the Conservatives on 18% support. This is the lowest for the governing party since the 17% recorded in June 2019, in the dying days of then-PM Theresa May's gov't.

  • The main opposition centre-left Labour Party sits on 44% support, with the right-wing populist Reform UK in third just three per cent behind the Conservatives on 15%. If these results were reflected in a general election it would likely result in a record Labour majority in excess of 200 seats.
  • The local elections will not have any immediate market-moving impact, but will be viewed through the lens of the impact on the stability of Sunak's gov't. The Conservatives are widely viewed as being set to lose 400-500 of the near-1,000 council seats they are defending. Losses in excess of this, combined with losing key mayoralties in the West Midlands and Tees Valley, could spur some Conservative backbenchers to seek Sunak's ouster .
  • Any ouster attempt could see Sunak call a general election in order to head off any leadership challenge. A snap election in July-August could limit the prospect of a pre-election 'fiscal event', as is widely expected if the GE is in the autumn.
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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservative party has recorded its lowest level of support in a YouGov poll since the June 2019. The news comes on the same day that voters across England and Wales go to the ballot box for local elections. The latest YouGov poll, carried out 30 Apr-1 May, has the Conservatives on 18% support. This is the lowest for the governing party since the 17% recorded in June 2019, in the dying days of then-PM Theresa May's gov't.

  • The main opposition centre-left Labour Party sits on 44% support, with the right-wing populist Reform UK in third just three per cent behind the Conservatives on 15%. If these results were reflected in a general election it would likely result in a record Labour majority in excess of 200 seats.
  • The local elections will not have any immediate market-moving impact, but will be viewed through the lens of the impact on the stability of Sunak's gov't. The Conservatives are widely viewed as being set to lose 400-500 of the near-1,000 council seats they are defending. Losses in excess of this, combined with losing key mayoralties in the West Midlands and Tees Valley, could spur some Conservative backbenchers to seek Sunak's ouster .
  • Any ouster attempt could see Sunak call a general election in order to head off any leadership challenge. A snap election in July-August could limit the prospect of a pre-election 'fiscal event', as is widely expected if the GE is in the autumn.