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Consensus Unanimous in Seeing 25bps Hike for May

NORGES BANK
  • The arguments in favour of a further 25bps this month are solid, aiding a unanimous consensus for such a move. The persistent weakness in the currency is a growing concern at the Bank and should be mentioned explicitly again in the policy statement. As a result, the Bank are seen not only raising rates at this meeting, but also flagging June as a further opportunity for tighter policy.

  • The Bank raised rates by 25bps to 3.00% in March and signalled the likelihood of additional tightening in May. Reinforcing the tightening bias was the material upgrade to rate path projections, which now fully discount two further 25bps hikes and a strong possibility for a third before year-end. As such, a commitment to further tightening at the June MPR meeting would not be outside of expectations.

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