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Latest polling from YouGov shows the lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservative Party cut by 3%. Nevertheless, in this poll, and most others at present, the governing party retains a sizeable lead over the main opposition centre-left Labour Party.

  • Westminster voting intention: CON: 44% (-2), LAB: 31% (+1), Green: 9% (-), Liberal Democrat: 7% (+1). via @YouGov, 09 - 10 Jun. Chgs. w/ 03 Jun
  • In June so far the Conservatives' average lead over Labour stands at 10.8%, a significant lead for a party that has headed the gov't for almost 11 years.
  • Johnson continues to ride the wave of the vaccine boost, with the switchover in opinion polling coming just around the time that the UK's vaccine rollout began in December 2020.

Chart 1. UK Opinion Polling, % and Trendline (6-poll moving average)

Source: YouGov, Survation, SavantaComRes, Ipsos MORI, Redfield and Wilton, Opinium, Panelbase, Deltapoll, Kantar Public, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll result.

  • The strong polling for the Conservatives has raised speculation that the prime minister could seek an early general election in 2023, rather than when currently scheduled in December 2024. However, given the length of time until that point there remain myriad factors that could impact negatively on gov't support, whether in the form of a new vaccine resistant COVID-19 variant resulting in new lockdowns, or the eventual economic impact of gov't spending largesse during the pandemic resulting in cuts to services or tax hikes on individuals.