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Conservative Leadership Race 4th Round Results @ Top Of The Hour


The results of the fourth round of the Conservative party leadership election to decide the next party head and who takes over as UK PM from Boris Johnson set to be announced at the top of the hour (1000ET, 1500BST, 1600CET).

  • A reminder of yesterday's results: Rishi Sunak: 115 (+14 from 3rd round), Penny Mordaunt: 82 (-1), Liz Truss: 71 (+7), Kemi Badenoch: 58 (+9), Tom Tugendhat: 31 (-1).
  • Former equalities minister Badenoch favourite to be eliminated in the fourth round, although some speculation that centrist supporters of the ousted Tugenhat or those of former Chancellor Rishi Sunak could lend their support in the secret ballot to Badenoch in an effort to see right-wing Foreign Secretary Liz Truss ousted from the contest.
  • Betting market data from Smarkets shows Sunak as favourite to win the race, with a 42.4% implied probability of winning (down from 50% this morning. Truss in second at 31.8% (up from 26.7% earlier today), Mordaunt third on 23.8% (up from 15.2%, and Badenoch fourth on 4.4%.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Conservative Leadership Election, %

Source: Smarkets

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