Conservatives' Slide In Poll Arrested, But Shortages Could Risk Stability

The slide in opinion polling support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservative Party has been arrested in the latest release from YouGov, which shows the Conservatives holding steady on 39%, while the main opposition centre-left Labour party slides three percent to 32% support.

• Conservative: 39% (=), Labour: 32% (-3), Liberal Democrat: 10% (+3), Green: 9% (+2), SNP: 4% (-1), Reform: 3% (=). Via @YouGov, 22-23 Sep. Changes w/ 15-16 Sep.
• The (relatively) strong polling for the Conservatives in recent months has led to speculation among some in the press that Johnson may be inclined towards seeking an early election in 2022 rather than waiting until the expiry of the current parliamentary term in 2024.
• However, at present this seems unlikely. UK residents sit the verge of a significant cost-of-living increase, with food price inflation rising, household energy bills at a record high, universal credit cuts incoming, and National Insurance contributions set to rise from spring of next year. The country is also in the midst of a supply chain crisis, with a shortage of HGV drivers resulting in some petrol stations running dry and shelves in supermarkets sitting empty.
• As these events and circumstances begin to be felt more keenly by the electorate, we could see Conservative support (viewed as quite 'soft' in many regions of the UK) begin to wither away.