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Consolidating Friday's Cheapening, Waiting Wednesday Deluge

US TSYS
  • TYH3 trades 4 ticks lower at 114-20+ with the entirety of the move coming through European hours before an unsurprisingly muted US session with the US out for Martin Luther King Day (~200k volumes). It extends Friday’s decline but keeps well within Thursday’s CPI-induced ranges.
  • The technical trend needle continues to point north, with resistance at 115-15+ (Jan 13 high) whilst to the downside sits 113-26+ (20-day EMA).
  • Tomorrow’s session provides a steady first day back for the US (although China data overnight of importance), with data limited to the Empire manufacturing index, as usual providing the first regional steer for January. Followed by Fedspeak late on with NY Fed’s Williams giving welcoming remarks at 1500ET.
  • The week then kickstarts in earnest on Wed, following the BoJ with a deluge of US data including retail sales, PPI inflation, industrial production, inventories, NAHB homebuilder sentiment and the Fed Beige Book along with four separate Fed speakers.
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