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Consolidating Yesterday’s Rally, 2s5s Inversion Builds

US TSYS
  • Relatively little change for cash Tsys overnight and through the European morning, largely consolidating yesterday’s large rally on heightened growth fears as they await ISM services and the FOMC minutes as part of a heavy calendar.
  • The 2s5s spreads dips slightly further into inversion having turned negative for the first time since Feb-2020 yesterday, now extending to -2bps. The magnitude of moves in recent days has seen historically elevated vols, with TY 1M 50D yesterday hitting new highs since Mar-2020 at 10.4 and only easing to 10 currently.
  • 2YY +2.4bps at 2.843%, 5YY +0.6bps at 2.823%, 10YY +1.3bps at 2.818% and 30YY +1.8bps at 3.057%.
  • TYU2 trades 2 ticks lower at 119-27 as it sticks near the top of yesterday’s range (120-07 high), clearance of which would open a key resistance at 120-19+ (May 26 high). Volumes are broadly in line with average.
  • Fed: Remarks from NY Fed’s Williams (0900ET) before the FOMC minutes (1400ET).
  • Data: Headlined by ISM services for June (1000ET) but also have the final S&P Global US PMI for Jun plus JOLTS for May and weekly MBA mortgage apps.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $30B 119d bill CMB auctions (1130ET).
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