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Consolidation on EURHUF Continues

HUNGARY
  • EURHUF has been retracing sharply lower this week after hitting an all-time high at 400 on Monday. The pair is currently approaching its ST support at 385; next level to watch on the downside stands at 380.
  • Market optimism ticked up slightly following Zelensky’ comments on NATO (Open to Compromise on NATO), which has eased the selling pressure on CEE currencies following dramatic depreciation in the last two weeks.
  • This morning, economic data showed that inflation accelerated to 8.3% YoY in February (vs. 8.1% exp.), up from 7.9% the previous months.
  • The NBH will publish the minutes of its latest meeting at 2pm CET.
  • The central bank is also expected to continue to hike its 1W depo rate tomorrow following its decision to raise the top corridor rate by 100bps to 6.4% yesterday.
    • Sell-side firms are currently expecting a 65bps hike to 6%.
    • Further consolidation on EURHUF could ease the ‘pressure’ on NBH policymakers and therefore lead to a lower hike (i.e. 30bps).
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