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Constitutional Tribunal To Hear Key Cases, GDP & CPI Data Under Microscope

POLAND
  • Government and ruling party officials have been doing media rounds defending the passage of a law creating a special committee to investigate Russian political influence in Poland. The legislation has come under criticism from the US, EU and opposition parties, who have accused the ruling Law and Justice of establishing a kangaroo court for its political rivals on the eve of a general election. Gazeta Wyborcza reported that the committee will initially focus on the role of former Prime Minister and current opposition leader Donald Tusk, foreign Foreign Minister and current MEP Radoslaw Sikorski and other officials in pursuing the so-called "Russian reset" policy.
  • The Constitutional Tribunal is due to hear a case surrounding presidential pardon for Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski (09:00BST/10:00CEST) and a case on court reforms needed to unlock EU funding (11:00BST/12:00CEST). Both must be heard by the full bench (at least 11 out of 15 judges), with several judges still boycotting the Tribunal's proceedings. The parliamentary majority failed to adopt amendments lowering the quorum in time, but Gazeta Wyborcza reported that one of the "rebels" is hesitating. Should they suspend their boycott, it could be enough to reach quorum.
  • NBP's Ireneusz Dabrowski told TVP Info last night that if the current trends continue, there might be scope for interest-rate cuts in Q4, depending on the November macroeconomic projection. Dabrowski said that CPI inflation may have eased below +13.0% Y/Y this month, but the NBP will also monitor the M/M print.
  • Flash CPI for May will be published at 09:00BST/10:00CEST alongside final Q1 GDP. Consensus is less optimistic than Dabrowski about the pace of disinflation. In a Bloomberg poll, the median estimate for headline CPI is +13.4% Y/Y.
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