September 28, 2022 06:00 GMT
GERMANY OCT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -42.5 (FCST -39.0); SEP -36.8r
- German consumer confidence is set to take another hit in October, according to the GfK index which tumbled a further 5.7 points to a weaker-than-expected -42.5.
- The decrease in income expectations led the fall to a fresh low, as consumers' real disposable incomes continue to decline. Propensity to buy was recorded at around 2008 GFC lows in the report, implying a reduction in consumer spending.
- September CPI is anticipated to jump another 1.5 points to +9.7% y/y in tomorrow's flash release (1300 BST). Inflation-driven sentiment will see little relief until headline price growth eases, either through continued monetary tightening by the ECB or positive developments in the Ukraine war.
- French and Italian consumer confidence data are expected to follow suit this morning at 0745 and 0900 BST respectively, likely adding downside risks to the ECB's Q3 September growth forecast of +0.1% q/q.
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