SWEDEN
The Swedish January Economic Tendency Indicator ticked up to 97.7 (vs 97.5 prior). The increase was driven by a rise in consumer confidence (99.1 vs 96.7 prior) alongside services (100.0 vs 98.9 prior) and construction (101.5 vs 100.2 prior) sentiment. Retail sentiment fell a touch but remains elevated at 109.5 (vs 110.9 prior – see our earlier retail sales bullet for more), while manufacturing sentiment was 94.8 vs 96.5 prior.
- The rise in consumer confidence is welcomed after a notable fall in December, but the details are less optimistic. The increase was “mainly explained by an improved perception of their own economic development over the past twelve months”, while “plans for home purchases, home renovations, and car purchases over the next twelve months are significantly more restrained than normal”.
- Business inflation expectations remained below target in at 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.4% in Q3)
- Expected employees across industries rose slightly for the third consecutive month, underscoring the Riksbank’s view that the labour market will stop weakening around the middle of this year.
- There was a sharp increase in manufacturing expected prices (20 vs 6 prior). More data will be needed to verify if this was an anomalous reading, or a more concrete signal of re-accelerating goods prices. Services and retail expected prices ticked a little lower versus December.
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