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Consumer Credit Surged On Revolving Credit In November

US DATA
  • Released in its usual late-in-the-session slot yesterday, consumer credit increased by far more than expected in Nov, rising a seasonally adjusted $23.75B (cons $8.55B) after $5.8B.
  • It marked the largest monthly increase since Nov’22, with some attributing it to the start of the holiday shopping season.
  • Revolving credit drove the increase with its third largest monthly increase on record (+$19.1B).
  • The rapid pace of revolving credit growth sees its share of overall credit outstanding return more firmly to pre-pandemic levels at 26.2% having dropped sharply early in the pandemic, with strong credit card growth helping fuel consumption over the past year.
  • Separately, credit card 30+ day delinquencies have been showing a broadly similar trend, rising to 1.35% in November having averaged 0.8% in 2H21-2022, but still historically low and not yet challenging the ~1.5% averaged years shortly ahead of the pandemic.

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