November 11, 2024 07:38 GMT
CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Burberry; Moncler rumours firm up
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
(Baa2 Neg/NR)
- Daily Mail; "staff at one of Burberry's flagship London stores have already been told about the takeover, according to correspondence seen by The Mail on Sunday....A source said Burberry has paused discussions with business affiliates who sell its merchandise until more details of the Moncler bid have been confirmed. They added staff had been told not to discuss the offer with outsiders 'until an official statement has come out."
- Follows initial leaks (3rd Nov) from a Fashion site 'Miss Tweed'.
The leaks from the Daily look firmer. Couple of asides;
- We see Moncler gross leverage moving from 0.7x to 3.4x on full debt funding and a 25% takeover premium (Friday close)
- We see-pro-forma rating as low singe-A (we peg it at A- for now). Part of our consideration for ratings is Moncler BS governance
- It is near-debt free outside leases and it's 2020 acquisition of Stone Island was financed by a 50/50 cash/equity split.
- The cash short-fall to Burberry purchase is €3.5b.
- Above is a 2-notch uplift for Burberry but 30s are trading away from ratings on the poor performance (below)
- Moncler would turn into a ~€6b in sales co with 3 brands underneath it (Burberry €2.9b, Moncler €2.6b, Stone Island €0.4b)
- Still smaller in scale vs. sterling peer Kering (~€17b)
- Re. how lux; Moncler margins run around 30% EBIT - higher than Burberry (16-20%) and more in-line with Kering (25-27%)
- Bernard took a stake in Moncler (giving him a board seat in the process) in late September
- most would see his involvement as a credit positive (re. helping Burberry navigate through this)
- Burberry earnings are Thursday (London pre-market) - numbers are guided to - and expected to - be rough
- over the 6m to Sept. likely to post an operating loss
- for it to be positive event, guidance or intra-quarter trends/exit rate would need to be positive - hard ask given Chinese consumer seems to have deteriorated through the quarter (from what comps have reported) - Burberry it is heavily (45%) exposed there
- Moncler should next report on the 13th of Feb (i.e. some runway)
- Q3 was -3% for group; Moncler -2%, Stone-Island -4%; (YTD +6%, +8%, -5%)
- Moncler Asia was -2% after a firmer YTD performance (+11%) - the flagship brand is a heavily exposed there (near 50%)
- Stone Island is EMEA heavy (3/4) but is struggling there (-9% YTD, -6% 3Q)
- Consensus is looking for FY growth to end at +4% (YTD +6%) at a adj. EBIT margin of 29.2%
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