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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: French consumer/transport names getting hit today include;

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • FDJ; up to +5; (Baa1/NR) no rating uplift for 20% ownership
  • La Poste; up to +5; (NR/A/A+) +3 rating uplift for full state ownership
  • Intermarche 29s +6; (NR/BBB- Neg) grocer, 87% in France
  • Edenred up to +4; (NR/A-) 15% from France and pending potential regulatory changes
  • Auchan (+5 and at wides); (NR/BB Neg) grocer, 50% in France

Notable mentions to those holding firmer;

  • Air-France; unch to tighter; (NR/BB+/BBB-) facing a potential (sizeable) increase in aviation tax - currently sees €90-170m profit impact. No rating uplift for 28% state-ownership.
  • Pluxee; unch; (NR/BBB+) 12% from France and pending potential regulatory changes
  • Aeroport de Paris; up to +2; (NR/A-) departing airlines facing a potential increase in aviation tax. The +1 uplift for the 51% state ownership was removed this year.

OAT spreads widened up to +7 into the close yesterday; -3 in from wides today. Re. dates to keep in mind, Senate votes on budget 12th of Dec but our political analyst is more interested in Assembly vote that is scheduled between 18-20th Dec (it must be passed by 21 Dec). Also note French gov. ratings (Aa2 Neg/AA- S/AA- Neg), is scheduled for its bi-annual review from S&P this Friday/29th; Moody's & Fitch did theirs in Oct and both moved to negative outlook.

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  • FDJ; up to +5; (Baa1/NR) no rating uplift for 20% ownership
  • La Poste; up to +5; (NR/A/A+) +3 rating uplift for full state ownership
  • Intermarche 29s +6; (NR/BBB- Neg) grocer, 87% in France
  • Edenred up to +4; (NR/A-) 15% from France and pending potential regulatory changes
  • Auchan (+5 and at wides); (NR/BB Neg) grocer, 50% in France

Notable mentions to those holding firmer;

  • Air-France; unch to tighter; (NR/BB+/BBB-) facing a potential (sizeable) increase in aviation tax - currently sees €90-170m profit impact. No rating uplift for 28% state-ownership.
  • Pluxee; unch; (NR/BBB+) 12% from France and pending potential regulatory changes
  • Aeroport de Paris; up to +2; (NR/A-) departing airlines facing a potential increase in aviation tax. The +1 uplift for the 51% state ownership was removed this year.

OAT spreads widened up to +7 into the close yesterday; -3 in from wides today. Re. dates to keep in mind, Senate votes on budget 12th of Dec but our political analyst is more interested in Assembly vote that is scheduled between 18-20th Dec (it must be passed by 21 Dec). Also note French gov. ratings (Aa2 Neg/AA- S/AA- Neg), is scheduled for its bi-annual review from S&P this Friday/29th; Moody's & Fitch did theirs in Oct and both moved to negative outlook.