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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: LVMH (MCFP; Aa3/AA-) re. rating risk - we don't see any

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
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In response to some follow ups; we don't see rating risk in near term (headroom on leverage at S&P, Moody's may test threshold but coming off a late '23 upgrade). Things to keep an eye on;

  • Despite being the most diversified lux, still has 25% of revenue in flagship Louis Vuitton brand - comments in the call did not give much away = nothing noticeably negative.
  • The above succession risks; worth having a view on and pricing that in for longer dated risk.
  • Equity-pay-outs staying in control; dividends + buybacks were 55% net-income last year (~sensible).
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In response to some follow ups; we don't see rating risk in near term (headroom on leverage at S&P, Moody's may test threshold but coming off a late '23 upgrade). Things to keep an eye on;

  • Despite being the most diversified lux, still has 25% of revenue in flagship Louis Vuitton brand - comments in the call did not give much away = nothing noticeably negative.
  • The above succession risks; worth having a view on and pricing that in for longer dated risk.
  • Equity-pay-outs staying in control; dividends + buybacks were 55% net-income last year (~sensible).