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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
The normal high-beta names compressing as we followed broader cash a tad tighter. Some of it was warranted (Mobico) some was baking in future optimism (VFC). Interestingly that did not extend to the high-beta airlines; Air-France & Finnair. We are watching supply for potential value next week after having to watch $ for most of this month; it’s been a mix of very large NIC's (Walgreen 5NC2's) to going through secondary (Mondelez 10Y) for consumer deals there.
Key Event Risk Ahead
- Tuesday: PVH earnings after the close
- Thursday: Pernod Ricard earnings in pre-market
- Friday: July US Personal Income & Spending report on Friday that comes alongside the core PCE figures
Notable Earnings this week
- Mobico disappointingly not calling the perps back despite an 'In-line with guidance' recovery in earnings. £28s would be our focus and we see it holding onto IG ratings for now.
- Aeroports de Paris July traffic doesn't given any green shoots for Air-France yet.
- Diverging results on harsh punishment for not giving value for brand extends down to lower-end of town (Target vs. Macy's).
Event Driven Movers
- Alimentation Couche-Tard makes offer to 7-11 parent - Seven & I - but faces a likely unwilling seller and number of regulatory headwinds.
- Japan Tobacco makes $3.4b (EV) acquisition of US combustible/cigarette retailer Vector Group.
- Capri goes bid as Tapestry files initial arguments in opposition to FTC block in court documents.
- DSV returns to DB Schenker sale headlines. CVC alongside its PE group seems to be fighting hard to win in it as well.
Primary
- €500m WNG Green 10Y Mandate from DSB (DSBTOG: Aa1/NR), Denmark Government Owned Public Train Operator
- 3m par-call, Change of Control put at Par
Rating Actions
- Fitch initiates on Carnival's snr unsecured's at BB positive, keeping in-line with S&P and away from Moody's more aggressive notching.
- British American Tobaccoupgraded by Moody's to Baa1 Stable, now in-line with S&P and Fitch.
- S&P echo's our comments on Grocers but leaves out Aussie Woolworths.
- (Regulatory) Reuters article reports EU Commission may tell Deutsche Bahn to stop funding its loss-making cargo segment.
- S&P leaves rating unch on Japan Tobacco (at A+) after $3.4b US cigarette acquisition.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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