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Free AccessConsumption Boost From Savings Rate Decline Fading
- Personal spending and income growth was as expected in nominal terms in October, with spending rising 0.22% M/M (cons 0.2) and incomes 0.25% M/M (cons 0.2).
- Goods spending (-0.2%) mirrored the weakness seen in retail sales, with services (+0.4%) more resilient.
- Real spending was more mixed relative to consensus, rising 0.17% M/M (cons 0.1) but after a downward revised 0.34% M/M (prior rounded to 0.4). There was a less clear cut split between goods and services here, goods rising 0.1% vs services 0.2% M/M.
- It leaves overall real consumption running at a still strong 3.0% annualized on a 3M/3M basis (following 3.6% in Q3), although the latest trend is softer at 2.1% annualized on a three-month basis.
- Back in nominal terms, disposable income increased 0.3% M/M after 0.4% M/M. It’s helped see a stabilization in the saving ratio at 3.9% (from 3.8% in Sep) after a sharp run down in Q3 helped fuel strong consumption growth, which in turn had reversed the build in savings rates in Q2 that came along with the consumption soft patch (when it increased 0.8% annualized).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.