Contained Trade, Proximity To Powell & Tomorrow’s Data Limit Conviction

ACGBs wound through Tuesday’s Sydney session with a lack of overt headline catalysts apparent, leaving them operating in a contained, two-way fashion since Monday’s settlement. YM closed +1.0, while XM was +0.5, as the major cash ACGB benchmarks ran 0.5-1.5bp richer across the curve.

• Bills were 1-7bp richer through the reds, bull flattening, while RBA dated OIS was little changed to marginally softer, showing 18bp of tightening for next month’s meeting, alongside a terminal cash rate of just under 3.90%.
• Local headline flow was sparse at best, with previously outlined corporate/supra issuance pricing, while WATC mandated for ’28 FRN issuance on the semi side.
• The domestic docket picks up on Wednesday, with monthly CPI, retail sales and job vacancies readings all slated. Participants will also have to adjust to Fed Chair Powell’s latest round of communique, which will cross in Tuesday’s NY session.