Contest To Lead Main Opposition Conservatives To Start With Little Fanfare

The contest to lead the main opposition centre-right Conservative party gets underway in earnest today, with the party's 121 remaining members of parliament voting between 1330-1500BST, with the six candidates set to be whittled down to five. Given that the Conservatives sit in opposition and PM Sir Keir Starmer's centre-left Labour gov't holds a massive majority in the House of Commons, the leadership contest - taking place over the coming two months - is unlikely to garner much market interest.

• Nevertheless, the leadership contest could determine how the Conservatives seek to position themselves ahead of the next general election (due by summer 2029 at the latest) and indeed the nature of opposition they offer to Starmer's gov't.
• A win for former Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, former Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick, or former Home Secretary Dame Priti Patel could see the Conservatives shift in a much more populist right-wing direction, with the primary focus on reducing immigration, in an effort to stop the bleed of support to Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
• Alternatively, should former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat, former Home Secretary James Cleverly, or former chair of the Treasury Select Committee Mel Stride emerge on 2 November as the next Conservative leader it could indicate the party set to pursue a more moderate centre-right position, focused on economic competence, looking to win back the party's historic heartlands in southern England from the centrist Liberal Democrats.
• Stride is seen as the most likely candidate to be ousted in today's round of voting.