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Continuing Claims Again Offer The Main Dovish Take But Initial Also Still Trend Higher

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 238k (sa, cons 235k) in the week to Jun 29 after a marginally upward revised 234k (initial 233k).
  • It sees the four-week average drift higher again to 239k (+3K) for a fresh high since late Aug 2023.
  • New York accounted for 4.5k of the 13.0k national increase in NSA initial claims, although that’s typical for the usual early summer pick-up.
  • Once again, continuing claims lead the push higher with a new recent high of 1858k (sa, cons 1840k) after a downward revised 1832k (initial 1839k). It remains the highest since Nov 2021.
  • The NSA initial claims data remain rangebound but the continuing claims data have clearly continued to push higher relative to ‘normal’ recent years – see charts.
  • The uptick in NSA continuing claims looks somewhat broad-based across the largest states.

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