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Contrasting Regional Fed PCE Measures

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BulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign Exchange
  • The Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE held steady at 3.0% annualized in April, having stepped down from 4.1% in Feb after hitting 6.3% in Jan. The 6-month rate dipped another two tenths to 4.2% annualized.
  • In contrast, the Cleveland Fed’s median PCE measure increased back to +0.46% M/M from +0.24% M/M in March.
  • As a reminder, actual core PCE inflation firmed fractionally from an upward revised +0.33% to +0.34% M/M, in a batch of data that’s done little to change Fed hike expectations, with a cumulative 98bps for July and 181bps to year-end.
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  • The Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE held steady at 3.0% annualized in April, having stepped down from 4.1% in Feb after hitting 6.3% in Jan. The 6-month rate dipped another two tenths to 4.2% annualized.
  • In contrast, the Cleveland Fed’s median PCE measure increased back to +0.46% M/M from +0.24% M/M in March.
  • As a reminder, actual core PCE inflation firmed fractionally from an upward revised +0.33% to +0.34% M/M, in a batch of data that’s done little to change Fed hike expectations, with a cumulative 98bps for July and 181bps to year-end.