"Control Group" Drop Highlights Softest Retail Sales Report In 3 Months

US retail sales had their poorest performance in 3 months in April, with weakness evident across the board, partially reversing March's strong gains.

• Overall retail sales were flat (+0.4% expected), pulling back from +0.6% in March, while ex-auto/gas sales were -0.1% (+0.2% expected) vs +0.7% in March. Each represented the poorest outturn in 3 months.
• The "control group" contracted by 0.3% M/M (+0.1% expected, and after +1.0% in March), the 3rd flat/negative reading in the past 4 months.
• The prior (March) figures also incorporate downward revisions across all major subcategories.
• Looking at individual business categories, motor vehicle/parts dealers were the biggest negative standout at -0.8% M/M, with sales in several other retail categories also negative including furniture, health/personal care, sporting goods, general merchandise stores, and nonstore retailers.
• Electronics and appliance stores (+1.5%), clothing (+1.6%) and and gasoline stations (+3.1%) were standouts on the upside, the latter largely due to higher gas prices.
• In real (CPI deflated) terms, retail sales fell by 0.3% Y/Y after a slight positive Y/Y reading in March - bigger picture, this series has basically been flat since 2Q 2021.
• The volatility in the retail sales series makes it difficult to draw too many conclusions on the health of the consumer with a single month's reading, but the reasonably broad-based softness and the contraction in the GDP-input control group suggest some moderate cause for concern as 2Q 2024 gets underway.