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Cook Political Report Shifts Six States Towards Trump

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The Cook Political Report, citing Biden’s polling decline since the first presidential debate, has moved six states toward Trump in its Electoral College ratings, leaving only the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as toss-ups. Arizona, Nevada and Georgia have been moved from toss-up to "Lean R."

  • Cook analyst David Wasserman writes that, “Biden’s post-debate dip represents the biggest polling shift of the year… Trump’s current numbers among Black and Latino voters are incompatible with any plausible Democratic victory scenario.”
  • Wasserman’s comments are notable as it is widely believed that the support of the Congressional Black and Hispanic Caucuses is the primary buffer preventing a full-blown rebellion against Biden.
  • Those Rust Belt states may not remain toss-ups for long. An AARP poll released yesterday showed Biden trailing Trump by seven points in Wisconsin.
  • Perhaps even more concerning for Biden, Politico has published a report claiming that New York Democrats are worried that deep blue New York could be competitive in November.
  • Politico: “Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago."
  • Politico adds: “A GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won New York since Ronald Reagan’s rout of Walter Mondale in 1984. But GOP candidates flipped enough suburban House seats to help their party maintain control of the chamber two years ago, as a Republican challenger to Gov. Kathy Hochul lost by a relatively modest 6 points.”
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The Cook Political Report, citing Biden’s polling decline since the first presidential debate, has moved six states toward Trump in its Electoral College ratings, leaving only the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as toss-ups. Arizona, Nevada and Georgia have been moved from toss-up to "Lean R."

  • Cook analyst David Wasserman writes that, “Biden’s post-debate dip represents the biggest polling shift of the year… Trump’s current numbers among Black and Latino voters are incompatible with any plausible Democratic victory scenario.”
  • Wasserman’s comments are notable as it is widely believed that the support of the Congressional Black and Hispanic Caucuses is the primary buffer preventing a full-blown rebellion against Biden.
  • Those Rust Belt states may not remain toss-ups for long. An AARP poll released yesterday showed Biden trailing Trump by seven points in Wisconsin.
  • Perhaps even more concerning for Biden, Politico has published a report claiming that New York Democrats are worried that deep blue New York could be competitive in November.
  • Politico: “Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago."
  • Politico adds: “A GOP presidential candidate hasn’t won New York since Ronald Reagan’s rout of Walter Mondale in 1984. But GOP candidates flipped enough suburban House seats to help their party maintain control of the chamber two years ago, as a Republican challenger to Gov. Kathy Hochul lost by a relatively modest 6 points.”