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Cooler Weather and LNG Supply Risk Supports European Gas

NATURAL GAS

Supply risks and the possibility of cooler weather have provided some support to the European gas market after falling 58% since mid December to a low of 64€/MWh last week.

    • TTF FEB 23 up 2% at 75.8€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 up 1.8% at 78.5€/MWh
  • TTF regained some ground yesterday as the weather forecast for NW and Central Europe has cooled very slightly. NW Europe is expected to see temperatures fall back to near normal from around 16 Jan although Central Europe could stay above normal.
  • Net LNG import flows to Europe have fallen again down to 358mcm/d on 7 Jan as near term gas spreads continue to favour spot LNG supplies to Asia over Europe.
  • Norwegian supplies are today nearly unchanged from yesterday at 342.3mcm/d with just a small outage at Oseberg until 16 Jan but other planned outages expected later this month.
  • European storage has dipped slightly to 83.05% on 8 Jan compared to the five year average of 66.6%. Gas in store in Germany is at 91.2% full, Italy at 81.48%, France at 82.4% and Netherlands at 76.69.
  • Gas transit via Ukraine is unchanged from yesterday at 35.5mcm/d today.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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