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Cooling Homebuilder Confidence An Early Signal Of Rate Cycle Turn

US

Homebuilder sentiment fell for the ninth straight month in September, per the National Association Of Home Builders' survey (as we noted in our 1029ET bullet).

  • That bodes badly for the housing cycle going into 2023, though that may be a welcome development for the Federal Reserve's goal of weakening aggregate demand and taming inflation.
  • Chair Powell notably said last month that "the housing market may have to go through a correction" to improve buyer affordability and - as with many other aspects of the economy - bring supply and demand into better balance.
  • While we're not there yet, a deterioration in housing market confidence from multi-year peaks has previously presaged Fed cutting cycles by a year or two (see chart).

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