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Copom Considered Larger Rate Hike At October Meeting

BRAZIL
  • This morning's release of the BCB minutes appear to have a hawkish tilt. The Copom not only considered larger rate hikes at the October meeting, but the minutes also indicate questionings regarding recent adjustments to the fiscal trajectory. The minutes state that this "implies assigning greater probability to alternative scenarios that consider higher neutral interest rates."
  • On the Selic rate, the minutes show: "The Committee also considered scenarios with adjustments greater than 1.50 p.p. The prevailing view, however, was that monetary policy tightening paths with 1.50 p.p. steps, considering different ending rates, are consistent with inflation converging to the target in 2022."
    • JPMorgan argue that in their view, the COPOM left the door open to step up the pace again in December, depending on the results of the fiscal negotiations and their impact on inflation expectations.
  • On today's domestic data docket:
    • 1800BST/1400ET: Oct. Trade Balance Monthly, est. $2.39b, prior $4.32b
    • 1800BST/1400ET: Oct. Imports Total, est. $20.6b, prior $20b
    • 1800BST/1400ET: Oct. Exports Total, est. $23b, prior $24.3b
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