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Copom Discussed Scenarios With Larger Hikes

BRAZIL
  • Link to Copom Minutes:
  • https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/copom/copomminutes/MINUTES%20243.pdf
  • Committee Discussed Scenarios With Larger Hikes
    • On MonPol – “Copom assessed the appropriate pace of interest rate hikes. For such, it analyzed its inflation projections using simulations with monetary policy paths with different terminal rates, under several alternative scenarios. The Committee also compared scenarios with adjustments greater than 1.50 p.p. with scenarios in which the interest rate remains high for a longer period than that implied in the baseline scenario.”
  • On IPCA – “Consumer inflation remains high, with increases spread among several components, and has proven to be more persistent than anticipated.”
    • “Recent readings were higher than expected and the surprise came in both the more volatile components, and on the items associated with core inflation. Prospectively, the significant drop in international energy commodity prices, which have had substantial volatility, has limited the upward revision of short-term projections.”
  • On growth – “In relation to the Brazilian economic activity, the release of the third quarter GDP figures revealed a slightly lower-than-expected evolution, although the activities most affected by the pandemic continued on a robust recovery path”
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