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Copom Minutes Due At 1200BST/0700ET

BRAZIL
  • The minutes from the June 15 Copom meeting are scheduled to be published at the top of the hour. At that meeting, the Copom hiked the Selic policy rate by 50bp, to 13.25%; further into restrictive territory.
  • Goldman Sachs note that in the minutes they will be particularly attentive to the following:
    • Discussion among directors on whether the cycle is likely to end at the August meeting or whether the Copom is contemplating the possibility of a longer cycle given the widening gap between the Copom’s forecasts and the end-2023 target.
    • Discussion among directors on the relevance to short-term policy decisions of the slightly below-target conditional inflation forecast for the distant end-2024.
    • Discussion among directors on the expected impact on the balance of risks and forecast for 2023 of package of bills currently being discussed in Congress to lower federal and local taxes on fuels, electricity, telecom and urban transportation.
    • Discussion among directors on whether heightened global economic, financial, and geopolitical uncertainty should lead to either a more hawkish/conservative or more dovish/cautious near-term policy calibration.

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