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Copom Minutes From May Meeting Released

BRAZIL
  • Link to the minutes: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/publications/copomminute...
  • Minutes seem very much in line with the statement. Economic activity data surprising to the topside and look to continue with partial normalisation with usual caveats that future decisions will depend upon the "evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and the inflation projections and expectations.":
  • * The committee considered that, "despite the greater-than-expected intensity of the second wave of the pandemic, the latest available economic activity data have surprised positively. For the Committee, the second half of the year should bring a robust recovery, as the effects of the vaccine rollout are felt more broadly."
  • * "The Copom then evaluated different normalization paths for the Selic rate. Considering the baseline scenario and the balance of risks, the Committee deemed appropriate another adjustment of the same magnitude in the next meeting, unless inflation determinants change. Additionally, the Committee noted that subsequent uninterrupted increases in the interest rate up to the level considered neutral imply projections considerably below the inflation target at the relevant horizon."

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