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Copper Prices Remain High While Net Specs Are Falling Sharply

COMMODITIES
  • While global risk on environment has kept copper prices to a 10Y high, net speculative positions have decreased significantly in the past two months, down nearly 60K to 18.5K contracts in the end of May (CFTC).
  • This chart shows that the two times series have been diverging sharply since the start of the year after co-moving strong in the past cycle.
  • Interestingly, the significant fall in copper net specs seems to have been linked to the fall in Chinese liquidity we have seen in recent months (the annual change in China Total Social Financing 12M sum has been falling aggressively since the start of the year).
  • It seems that speculators are not confident that the rally in commodities could continue without Chinese 'help'.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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