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METALS: Copper Up As Trump Tariff Threat Classes With Softer Demand Signals

METALS
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The active copper contract, per CMX, is holding close to $470. This is holding the bulk of the gains from late in Tuesday US trade, as Trump called on the US Commerce Department to investigate potential tariffs on copper. 

  • In a Truth Social post, Trump stated: ""Like our Steel and Aluminum Industries, our Great American Copper Industry has been decimated by global actors attacking our domestic production. To build back our Copper Industry, I have requested my Secretary of Commerce and USTR to study Copper Imports, and end Unfair Trade putting Americans out of work. Tariffs will help build back our American Copper Industry, and strengthen our National Defense"
  • For CMX copper, upside focus may rest on a test above $480, which we couldn't sustain earlier in Feb. Recent lows rest at $451.6. The base metal is above all key EMAs, with the 20-day near $457.
  • More broadly, the Bloomberg base metals sub index has been under some pressure, with softer US data outcomes creating some global growth concerns. The chart below overlays the Citi global economic surprise index (the white line on the chart) against the Bloomberg base metals series.
  • The risk of copper tariffs will add fresh uncertainty to the outlook, given some signs US economic momentum is moderating. For China, focus is likely to be on the upcoming "Two Sessions" gathering and what stimulus measures may unfold from that. 

Fig 1: Citi Global Economic Surprise Index & Bloomberg Base Metal Prices 

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The active copper contract, per CMX, is holding close to $470. This is holding the bulk of the gains from late in Tuesday US trade, as Trump called on the US Commerce Department to investigate potential tariffs on copper. 

  • In a Truth Social post, Trump stated: ""Like our Steel and Aluminum Industries, our Great American Copper Industry has been decimated by global actors attacking our domestic production. To build back our Copper Industry, I have requested my Secretary of Commerce and USTR to study Copper Imports, and end Unfair Trade putting Americans out of work. Tariffs will help build back our American Copper Industry, and strengthen our National Defense"
  • For CMX copper, upside focus may rest on a test above $480, which we couldn't sustain earlier in Feb. Recent lows rest at $451.6. The base metal is above all key EMAs, with the 20-day near $457.
  • More broadly, the Bloomberg base metals sub index has been under some pressure, with softer US data outcomes creating some global growth concerns. The chart below overlays the Citi global economic surprise index (the white line on the chart) against the Bloomberg base metals series.
  • The risk of copper tariffs will add fresh uncertainty to the outlook, given some signs US economic momentum is moderating. For China, focus is likely to be on the upcoming "Two Sessions" gathering and what stimulus measures may unfold from that. 

Fig 1: Citi Global Economic Surprise Index & Bloomberg Base Metal Prices 

Keep reading...Show less