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Core CPI Beat Clashes With Empire Spillover

CANADA
  • GoCs are holding cheaper after particularly stubborn core CPI, pushing to new lows in 2s although still off those post-data lows further out the curve with spillover from the surprising slump in the US Empire mfg index.
  • 2s trade 2.5bp cheaper since the release (vs Tsys 1.5bp richer) for 7bp cheaper on the day.
  • Things are still settling but a first cut in April is no longer quite fully priced (about 22-23bp), whilst CORRA futures sell-off 3.5-4.5 ticks in a mostly parallel shift that sees CORH4/Z4 at -114bps.
  • USDCAD sits 15-20 pips lower at 1.3463, off post-data lows of 1.3445 but still within overnight ranges rather than breaking any new ground lower.
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