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Core CPI M/M Moderates Across All Three Main Components

US DATA
  • Strip core CPI into three categories of core goods, shelter and non-shelter services and each one of these saw moderation on the month.
  • i) Core goods of -0.52% M/M hit a new low since Apr’20 but beyond that is the largest monthly decline since at least 2000. The unwinding of last year’s surge in used car prices is having a large impact but it’s not simply that: core goods ex used cars inflation was just 0.01% M/M, the lowest since Feb’21.
  • ii) One of the few hot spots of the November report, key OER and rent of primary residence measures accelerated after October’s surprise dip but total rent of shelter eased to 0.65% M/M (lowest since July) courtesy of lower lodging away from home prices.
  • iii) Finally, non-shelter service inflation, a measure that Chair Powell put increased weight on as an indicator of future inflation pressures, eased a tenth to 0.23% M/M on MNI calculations, its softest since July and before that Sep’21.

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