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Core CPI Rose By 3.9% in April

POLAND
  • After April CPI Final print came in at 4.3% (as Preliminary) on Friday, economic data showed that April core CPI came in higher than expected at 3.9% (vs. 3.7% exp. and flat from the previous month), implying that both inflation measures are now standing above NBP's 3.5% upper tolerance band.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI


  • We have seen that inflationary pressures have intensified in recent weeks, leading to a rise in disagreements (between NBP policymakers) over the trajectory of rates in the medium term.
  • The 2023 breakeven inflation rate has been constantly rising in the past year and is currently trading at 3.88%; hence, the bond market is currently not expecting inflationary pressures to ease in the second half of his year (as some NBP policymakers expect).
  • As a result, LT bonds have been under pressure recently, with the 10Y yield up nearly 30bps in the past week and currently testing its 2% resistance.

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