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Core CPI Trend Continues To Moderate

SOUTH KOREA

South Korea Nov CPI was a little weaker than expected. The m/m headline was -0.6%, versus -0.3% forecast and 0.3% prior. This left the y/y headline at 3.3% (forecast 3.5% prior 3.8%). Core inflation, ex food and energy, was also sub estimates, printing 3.0%y/y (3.1% forecast and 3.2% prior).

  • The m/m drag was driven by a 2.6% drop in food prices. Housing/utilities, furnishings, transport and recreation/culture also recorded m/m drops. Clothing and alcohol/tobacco were the main positives.
  • In y/y terms, 5 out of 12 sub indices saw firmer y/y momentum, while the rest were down or unchanged on the Oct outcome. This fits with a slightly softer core y/y backdrop.
  • The data is likely to give the authorities/BoK some comfort that the recent spike up in the headline y/y CPI is unlikely to be the start of a sharply higher inflation backdrop.
  • Other data released showed Q3 GDP revisions unchanged from the original estimate (0.6% q/q and 1.4% y/y).

Fig 1: South Korea CPI Trends


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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