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Core Durable Goods Orders See Softer Trend With Downward Revision

US DATA
  • Durable goods orders fell by more than expected in preliminary January data, -6.1% M/M (cons -5.0%) after a downward revised -0.3% (initial 0.0%).
  • As is nearly always the case, it’s down to non-defense aircraft orders (-59%).
  • Core durable goods orders meanwhile were as expected with 0.1% M/M but it followed a sizeable downward revision to -0.6% (initial 0.2) in Dec.
  • Core shipments saw a decent beat, increasing 0.8% M/M (cons 0.1) after an upward revised 0.1% (initial 0.0), which at least bodes well for early Q1 momentum even forward-looking orders were on net softer.
  • Core orders are up 0.4% and shipments 0.1% on a 3M/3M annualized basis. As we have noted before, both hold up well compared to business surveys in contraction territory.

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